February 7, 2019
Is a recession coming? Has it started already?
Opinions are all over the map among economists, executives, Wall Streeters and Average Joes about where the economy is headed and whether a correction is imminent.
The bottom line is that a recession is going to happen sooner or later. Every market expansion is eventually followed by a downturn, and our economy has been expanding for almost 10 years, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
So we’re due for a correction sometime. The tricky thing is that you can’t tell that a recession is underway until gross domestic product (GDP) falls for two consecutive quarters and by then you’re already well into the recessionary period.
Many investors were spooked in December when the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both posted their worst December since 1931, and the longest U.S. government shutdown in history didn’t help allay fears.
But don’t panic, because the underlying economy is very strong. Unemployment rates are still below 4% and the Federal Reserve said in late January that it would pause on interest rate hikes, a dovish signal that sent global stocks rallying as investors took reassurance that it won’t get more expensive to borrow capital.
When the next correction inevitably occurs, chances are good that it will be short and it may not even be a full-blown recession.
Since World War II, the average recession has only lasted about 11 months, and that includes the unusually long “Great Recession” of 2008-09 that lasted 18 months and skewed the data, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Check out this one-minute video of our CEO Patrick Braswell sharing his views about what to do during a recession.
When clients ask us where we think the economy is going and whether they should approach real estate differently, our advice is the same no matter where the Dow and S&P 500 are trading: Be strategic in creating a flexible office environment that helps all of your employees do their best work.
It will strengthen the culture of your organization. It will help your business operations run more smoothly. It will make everyone more productive. Your business will thrive.
Find out how we can help elevate your workplace. You can reach us here.